This announcement from NorthStar Earth & Space Inc. was released on Oct 21, 2025
NorthStar Earth & Space leads a European consortium to enhance the safety of satellite operations
ESA funded initiative to combine atmospheric models with orbital predictions to reduce space navigation risk arising from solar flares
Luxembourg – October 21, 2025– NorthStar Earth & Space S.à r.l. (“NorthStar”), a leader in Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and space sustainability solutions, has been awarded a contract by the European Space Agency (ESA), through its European Space Operations Centre (ESOC) in Darmstadt, to head a consortium to develop a new capability to improve the accuracy of satellite orbit predictions by addressing atmospheric drag uncertainty in Low Earth Orbit (LEO).
As space becomes increasingly congested, predicting satellite movements with greater precision is critical for safe operations. By developing better drag models, operators improve navigation reliability, making space safer.
Solar and geomagnetic activity heat the upper portion of Earth’s atmosphere. The heating changes the density of the upper atmosphere and the drag experienced by satellites in LEO (between 160km and 2000km altitude), which alters their orbits. Small errors in space weather forecasting may adversely impact collision risk assessments, re-entry predictions, and satellite operations during launch and early orbit phases.
“NorthStar is proud to lead this world class team of scientists and experts to enhance the precision of orbital forecasts, vital to the safety and sustainability of space operations,” said Ignacio Cires, Executive Director of Business Development NorthStar Earth & Space S.à r.l.. “This ESA collaboration brings together some of Europe’s strongest expertise in atmospheric modeling and orbital dynamics and combines this with NorthStar’s leading commercial SSA products to ensure these advances translate directly into operational safety for satellite operators.”
Through this ESA-funded project, NorthStar and its partners will develop advanced methods to improve estimates of variations in density of the thermosphere located at an altitude between 80 and 1000km where most LEO satellites operate. Heating from space weather can cause temperature changes anywhere from 500⁰C to 1500⁰C during strong storms. The air in the upper atmosphere is very thin so one would not “feel” the temperature changes to the same extent as on Earth but the resulting impact on the orbits of satellites in LEO is measurable. To deliver more accurate and reliable orbit navigation predictions the consortium will combine satellite orbital data with space weather information and atmospheric models.
The project consortium includes:
• Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M, Spain) – Provides expertise in uncertainty quantification and propagation for orbital models, with proven experience in orbit determination, re-entry prediction, and collision risk assessment in multiple ESA programs.
• Institutul de Științe Spațiale (ISS, Romania) – Contributes expertise in thermosphere–ionosphere physics, and numerical modelling. ISS operates forecasting services within ESA’s Space Weather Service Network and maintains advanced physics-based models for atmospheric drag estimation.
• NorthStar Earth & Space Europe S.à r.l. (Luxembourg) – Leads the project’s operational integration, applying enhanced atmospheric modeling directly into its SSA services to strengthen collision risk assessment, re-entry prediction, and satellite safety solutions.
The improved capability will be integrated into NorthStar’s Collision Avoidance System, supporting compliance with international space debris mitigation standards. Beyond conjunction analysis, the results will also benefit end-of-life re-entry predictions, launch and early orbit operations, and mission planning for operators of satellites and constellations. With this initiative, NorthStar continues to expand its SSA capabilities from Luxembourg, reinforcing its role in advancing space safety and sustainability in Europe and globally.
About NorthStar
NorthStar Earth & Space S.à r.l., headquartered in Luxembourg, provides commercial Space Situational Awareness (SSA) services to ensure satellite safety throughout the entire mission lifecycle, from launch to de-orbit. From Luxembourg, the company also delivers Space Domain Awareness (SDA) services in support of the United States Space Force (USSF) Joint Commercial Operations (JCO) Meridian Cell, contributing to the protection of critical space infrastructure.
The Luxembourg team, comprises European experts in astrodynamics, data science, and software development, is focused on addressing both European and international opportunities. NorthStar is positioned to play a leading role in advancing space safety, security, and sustainability on a global scale.
Media Contacts:
NorthStar Earth & Space S.à r.l.
Email: media@northstar-data.com
Website: https://northstar-data.com